Production Forecasting Tools 2018-09-14T23:20:59+00:00

Production Forecasting Tools

November 5-6, 2018 – Saad Ibrahim, P. Engineer

Course Objective:

This course offers a detailed coverage of the techniques used to evaluate reserves of oil and gas wells using Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) techniques. The industry standard methods of determining the hydrocarbons-in-place are discussed using volumetric and material balance calculations and probabilistic methods. Pressure Transient Techniques; such as reservoir limit testing and deconvolution methods are discussed. Also other techniques to estimate the hydrocarbons-in-place using Rate Transient Analysis (RTA); are reviewed. Flow regime diagnoses tools; such as, the log-log plot of the pressure vs time and also for the production data vs time are used. The applications and deficiencies of the original DCA methods by ARPS are discussed. New DCA techniques which could be used for wells that are not stabilized yet (in transient), are reviewed. The use of “Well Typing” is discussed to generate production forecasts (P90, P50, and P10). Numerous case studies will be presented to provide practical applications of all the concepts discussed in the course. A course hand-out which is an excellent reference will be provided.

Cost: $1600 + GST

Date: November 5-6, 2018




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Download Course Description (PDF)

Who Should Attend:

This course is aimed at reservoir, petroleum and exploitation engineers/technologists, geophysicists, and geologists who are involved in reserves determination and production forecasting.

Course Instructor:

Mr. Saad Ibrahim, P. Eng,

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president of Petro Management Group Ltd. He has over 35 years of diversified experience in the oil and gas Industry as a worldwide highly recognized engineering consultant and a distinguished instructor. He also completed a post-graduate program with the University of Calgary in Chemical and Petroleum Engineering. The focus of Mr. Ibrahim’s experience lies in the area of Reservoir management, and well test planning/analysis. Mr. Ibrahim is a member of APEGA and SPE.

Course Agenda:

Estimate of hydrocarbons-in-place using well test analysis techniques (PTA):

  • Review basic concepts of reservoir evaluation, such as flow geometry and boundary conditions
  • Flow regime diagnoses using PTA methods (Log-log plots of pressure vs time and for production rate vs time)
  • Review of the principles and applications of the well test analysis techniques for to estimate hydrocarbons-in-place; including
    • Reservoir Limit Tests (RLT) – case studies
    • Deconvolution techniques – case study

Estimate of the hydrocarbons-in-place using deterministic and probabilistic methods:

  • Volumetric, static material balance methods (oil and gas), methods (class example)
  • Probabilistic method using Monte Carlo simulation
  • Use of Rate Transient Analysis (RTA) including the use of flowing material balance technique and advanced type curve matching (Blasingame, Fetkovich)
  • Use of history matching techniques of production/pressure data
  • Use of new numerical techniques to estimate Stimulated Reservoir Volume (SRV) and Contacted Reservoir Volume (CRV), commonly used for reserves booking of Multi-stage Frac of Horizontal wells (MFHW’s)
  • Numerous case studies

Decline Curve Analysis (DCA)

  • The use of ARPS decline curve analysis, applications and deficiencies, (class example)
  • The use of new DCA methods and its application for wells that are not stabilized (still in transient), including:
  • The use of well typing is discussed to generate production forecasts (P90, P50, and P10)
  • A unique empirical (Russian method!) used to estimate recoverable oil for mature waterflood projects – Case studies

Closing remarks and a question period

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