Production Forecasting Tools

Mr. Saad Ibrahim: P. Eng

Feb 25-26, Oct 12-13, 2026

Course Objective:

This course offers a detailed coverage of the industry recognized techniques used to generate production forecasts for oil and gas wells using the applicable techniques; well testing (PTA), Rate Transient Analysis (RTA) and Decline Curve Analysis (DCA). Production forecasting can be more reliable with the knowledge of the OOIP and OGIP; except for DCA, which is achieved using the P/Z plot and PTA for conventional reservoirs. For unconventional reservoirs RTA is utilized using techniques such as the flowing material balance, Rate normalized and type curve methods. Forecasting can readily be performed using Arps decline analysis for conventional reserves (old method) but for the unconventional reservoirs several techniques including: Power Law, Modified Hyperbolic methods. Well Typing is discussed for well with short history but with of offset wells with long history to generate well forecasts. Pressure history matching using either RTA and PTA can allow reliable production forecasts to be generated, which requires both production and pressure data, and also can perform sensitivity analysis for (P90, P50, and P10 cases) using deterministic and probabilistic methods. Other techniques will be discussed for mature waterflood projects using a unique imperial method. Numerous case studies will be presented using both analytical and numerical methods. A course hand-out which is an excellent reference will be provided.

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Classroom:
$2,400.00 plus 5% (GST)

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This course is aimed at reservoir, petroleum and exploitation engineers/technologists, geophysicists, and geologists who are involved in reserves determination and production forecasting.

Mr. Saad Ibrahim, P. Eng. – president of Petro Management Group Ltd. Mr. Ibrahim has over 35 years of diversified experience in the oil and gas industry and is known as highly recognized consultant and a distinguished instructor. He completed a post-graduate program with the University. The focus of Mr. Ibrahim’s experience lies in the area of reservoir management, reserves estimate, EOR, and well test planning/analysis. Mr. Ibrahim is a member of APEGA and SPE.

Description of the flow regimes and the use of Darcy equation

Estimate of hydrocarbons-in-place using well test analysis techniques (PTA):

  • Review basic concepts of reservoir evaluation, such as flow geometry and boundary conditions.

  • Flow regime diagnoses using PTA methods (Log-log plots of pressure vs time and for production rate vs time).

  • Review of the principles and applications of the well test analysis techniques for to estimate hydrocarbons-in-place; including:

    • Reservoir Limit Tests (RLT) – case studies

    • Deconvolution techniques – case study

Estimate of the hydrocarbons-in-place production forecasts using both the deterministic and probabilistic methods:

  • Volumetric, static material balance methods (oil and gas), methods (class example)

  • Probabilistic method using Monte Carlo simulation

  • Use of Rate Transient Analysis (RTA) including the use of flowing material balance technique and advanced type curve matching (Blasingame, Fetkovich)

  • Use of history matching techniques of production/pressure data

  • Use of new numerical techniques to estimate Stimulated Reservoir Volume (SRV), Contacted Reservoir Volume (CRV) and forecasting, commonly used for reserves booking of Multi-stage Frac of Horizontal wells (MFHW’s).

  • Numerous case studies

Decline Curve Analysis (DCA)

  • The use of ARPS decline curve analysis, applications and deficiencies, (class example)

  • The use of new DCA methods and its application for unconventional wells that are not stabilized (still in transient), including the methods in the graph below:

  • The use of well typingis discussed to generate production forecasts (P90, P50, and P10 cases).

  • A unique empirical (Russian method !) used to estimate recoverable oil and production forecasts for mature waterflood projects – Case studies

  • Production forecast for gas wells using the Modified Isochronal test is presented.